It has been proposed that major depressive disorder is near-identical with sickness behavior, so raising the possibility that it is a maladaptive manifestation of sickness behavior due to abnormalities in circulating cytokines.Scott Alexander has recently blogged about this, or closely related stuff, here. I have not read his post yet.
Did it use to be better?
What You See does not appear to be What You Get at all. I find myself doing much more xml than I'd like to because the editor keeps not wrapping things in paragraph tags and not inserting line breaks, as well as losing the ones I've manually inserted whenever I switch back to "Visual" (i.e. supposedly WYSIWYG) mode.
It's also not very powerful at all, more generally speaking.
Other than that, I think WordPress is pretty cool. I'm not much of fan of the 2015 theme, and I find the stylesheet difficult to make sense of (I'm a css noob), but older themes look better and are easier to change as desired.
(Full LW post and raw data here.)
From the results of the calibration questions:
It looks to me like everyone was horrendously underconfident on all the easy questions, and horrendously overconfident on all the hard questions. To give an example of how horrendous, people who were 50% sure of their answers to question 10 got it right only 13% of the time; people who were 100% sure only got it right 44% of the time. Obviously those numbers should be 50% and 100% respectively.
This builds upon results from previous surveys in which your calibration was also horrible. This is not a human universal - people who put even a small amount of training into calibration can become very well calibrated very quickly. This is a sign that most Less Wrongers continue to neglect the very basics of rationality and are incapable of judging how much evidence they have on a given issue. Veterans of the site do no better than newbies on this measure.
Communist: 9, 0.6%
Conservative: 67, 4.5%
Liberal: 416, 27.7%
Libertarian: 379, 25.2%
Social Democratic: 585, 38.9%
Democratic Party: 221, 14.7%
Republican Party: 55, 3.7%
Libertarian Party: 26, 1.7%
Other party: 16, 1.1%
No party: 415, 27.6%
Non-Americans who really like clicking buttons: 415, 27.6%
In answer to "rate your belief in/agreement with the concept on a scale of 1 (bad) to 5 (great)":
MIRI Mission: 3.90 + 1.062 (3, 4, 5) 
MIRI Effectiveness: 3.23 + .897 (3, 3, 4) 
Immigration: 4 + 1.078 (3, 4, 5) 
Taxes : 3.14 + 1.212 (2, 3, 4)  (from 1 - should be lower to 5 - should be higher)
Minimum Wage: 3.21 + 1.359 (2, 3, 4)  (from 1 - should be lower to 5 - should be higher)
Basic Income: 3.94 + 1.087 (3, 4, 5) 
Accept/lean towards consequentialism: 901, 60.0%
Accept/lean towards deontology: 50, 3.3%
Accept/lean towards natural law: 48, 3.2%
Accept/lean towards virtue ethics: 150, 10.0%
Accept/lean towards contractualism: 79, 5.3%
Other/no answer: 239, 15.9%
Constructivism: 474, 31.5%
Error theory: 60, 4.0%
Non-cognitivism: 129, 8.6%
Subjectivism: 324, 21.6%
Substantive realism: 209, 13.9%
Effective Altruism (do you self-identify)
Yes: 422, 28.1%
No: 758, 50.4%
[Despite some impressive outreach by the EA community, numbers are largely the same as last year]
Effective Altruism (do you participate in community)
Yes: 191, 12.7%
No: 987, 65.7%
Vegan: 31, 2.1%
Vegetarian: 114, 7.6%
Other meat restriction: 252, 16.8%
Omnivore: 848, 56.4%
Digit ratio correlations:
Restricting sample size to men, right-handed digit ratio correlates with feminism at a level of 0.149, p < 0.01. Left handed just barely fails to correlate. Both right and left correlate with immigration at 0.135, p < 0.05.
This paper tests for downward nominal wage rigidity in markets for casual daily agricultural labor in a developing country context. I examine transitory shifts in labor demand, generated by rainfall shocks, in 600 Indian districts from 1956-2009. First, there is asymmetric adjustment: nominal wages rise in response to positive shocks but do not fall during droughts. Second, transitory positive shocks generate ratcheting: after they have dissipated, nominal wages do not adjust back down. Third, inflation moderates these effects, enabling downward real wage adjustments both during droughts and after positive shocks. Fourth, wage distortions generate employment distortions, creating boom and bust cycles: employment is 9% lower in the year after a transitory positive shock than if the positive shock had not occurred. Fifth, consistent with the misallocation of labor across farms, households with small landholdings increase labor supply to their own farms when they are rationed out of the external labor market. The results are not consistent with other transmission mechanisms, such as migration or capital accumulation. These findings indicate the presence of rigidities in a setting with few institutional constraints. Survey evidence suggests that workers and employers believe that nominal wage cuts are unfair and lead to effort reductions.I liek Tyler Cowen's comments and questions, too.
Vipul has already leaked this information, but: I've set up a Wordpress blog which automatically fetches my FB posts and saves them as draft blog posts. I'm trying this out as a way to (i) have a searchable archive of my FB posts, and (ii) occasionally review interesting posts and craft them into something more substantial.
Thanks to Vipul for letting me use his server space and setting up all the hosting stuff for me :)
Vipul on tying one's shoes on a moving walkway: "it's a zero-interest-rate non-expanding Ponzi scheme"- Michael Tontchev
Neat lil puzzle Julian likes to pose:
You’re at the airport, rushing toward your gate in hopes of catching your flight. You’re just reaching a moving walkway when you notice your shoe is untied. Assuming it is necessary for you to stop and spend around 20 seconds tying your shoe, which will get you to the gate faster:
a) Stopping before the moving walkway to tie your shoe, then resuming running from the beginning of the walkway, or
b) Stepping on the moving walkway, *then* stopping to tie your shoe, then resuming running from wherever you are on the walkway?
If, on the 1st of January 2016, the national currency of Greece is still the Euro, I will pay Alexander Biersack €3. Otherwise, Alexander will pay me €2.
The odds I've offered are as generous as they could have been given my low level of confidence :) I say this now and will not repeat it if and when I lose this bet, nor prior to it, especially if things are looking like I am going to lose.